Look at what I didn't get today/QQ Bad luck thread

[Mookz]

Just broke open my 1,500th fortune and no dragon. I WILL GET ONE; I refuse to buy. I want to experience the happiness of opening one and seeing it pop out on the ground.

I barely get fireworks too, all I ever get is the damn buffs and 100 gold. Doing some quick math, I've wasted ~145e worth of fortunes. I've made like 10k from them... lol

[KZaske]

With my luck, I just spent the money and bought the dragon. Yeah I opened over 500 fortunes so far, and what do I have to show for it? About 50 more party points and a total of about 3K...

[Mr Dinkleberg]

I opened 83 fortunes and got only 1 dragon

[the Puppeteer]

Originally Posted by Mr Dinkleberg

I opened 83 fortunes and got only 1 dragon

get out of this thread

[netniwk]

I opened a chest and somehow the item dropped behind a wall making it impossible to pick up

[Chaos Theory Pvp]

Just completed 12 out of 18 dungeons 120+ foes per level x3 or more and the best drop so far is a purple reinforced buckler, everything else has been a couple of blues rest whites... is this normal???? I know I have heros but jeez I gave up on chests just a waste of money such a shame because the game is so cool.

[Swingline]

Originally Posted by Chaos Theory Pvp

Just completed 12 out of 18 dungeons 120+ foes per level x3 or more and the best drop so far is a purple reinforced buckler, everything else has been a couple of blues rest whites... is this normal???? I know I have heros but jeez I gave up on chests just a waste of money such a shame because the game is so cool.

That's how its supposed to be. The only reason the market is flooded with the rare end chest stuff is because of speed clears. When you take the time to actually do the dungeons the way they are meant to be done you will feel like your time has been completely wasted. You can thank speed clears for that.

[Missing HB]

Originally Posted by Swingline

That's how its supposed to be. The only reason the market is flooded with the rare end chest stuff is because of speed clears. When you take the time to actually do the dungeons the way they are meant to be done you will feel like your time has been completely wasted. You can thank speed clears for that.

Yes, that's the reason why everyone is complaining at speed clears.. It's not really passionating at the end when you're taking an hour or two to clear dungeons to end with 2 onyx gemstones or 2 flame staves..

If you can here still say these dungeons are still fun, trust me after doing vloxen excavations or slavers exile and getting on average one onyx and one gold item worth what's written below it, it's not really getting fun anymore..( it's actually in addition frustrating when you have to rage before the end because you made mobs bug and you cannot lure anymore)..

But well, speed clears are quite responsible.. You aren't really supposed to have some ectos/shards and a bunch of items in half the time you would take for a dungeon. The problem here are the guaranteed items( shards/ectos for fow/uw , gemstones from DoA).. Be sure, if chests did drop gold items in DoA( or greens) there would probably be noone there..

[Kiki Go Boom]

This is what happens when I try to farm Sephis Axes.



I guess getting 4 gold dead bows in one run (the top one is from another mob) is a good thing. But why did the Sephis have to be white . . .

[MithranArkanere]

Yesterday I did some Underworld with a balanced party.

Not a single ecto for anyone in the party.

[Konker2020]

Probability has nothing to do with averaging out. If you have a 1% chance and you fail, your chance is still 1%. There is no fluctuation with your chances, or any averaging out. 1% remains 1% no matter how many times you fail.

Originally Posted by Showtime

And then I got to thinking and thats never good. It's just math and if you open enough of something it should average out. With 2 accounts and 13 characters the best mini I got was a yr 2 gold in yr 4. Best bday mini I got right when they came out was a purple freezie. Not one green so far. I haven't got anything good off either the z-chest or good ole nick. I blew over a million on keys a wk or 2 before they gave you credit on them for the z-title so didn't even get pts. No el tonics etc. Did another few hundred k after and nothing. I gave up and decided to sell everything instead of gambling.

[Alay]

Bought guild wars for a friend, and was playing the early prophecies missions with them. On Fort Ranik, they looted not one but TWO black dyes during the mission.

>.>

[Kook~NBK~]

FoW run = 1 shard. From the chest. The second best thing from the run was the obsidian key that also came from the chest.

[CE Devilman]

all I got from the chest is a crapy bow..Q.Q

[Showtime]

Originally Posted by Konker2020

Probability has nothing to do with averaging out. If you have a 1% chance and you fail, your chance is still 1%. There is no fluctuation with your chances, or any averaging out. 1% remains 1% no matter how many times you fail.

So you are telling us that opening something 100 times nets you the same exact same chance as opening it one time? If that were the case people would only buy 1 dollar lotto tickets.

Back to reality.

Those QQ'ing feel free to read from page one and see other hard luck stories. Besides the obvious trolling, the legit cases are abundant. It makes it feel ess personal. Sometimes you just aren't going to get something. I gave up on wik minis, but since I broke the curse, I got a mini Xun Rao in the 1st 11 I opened. Hmm maybe I should start another stack of wiks? NO!

edit

Originally Posted by Flameseeker

Yup, if you throw a coin you always have 50/50 chance of heads or tails. Even if by any freak of nature you get heads 10 times straight the probability of each individual attempt was 50/50 and the 11th will still be 50/50.
Now the probability of having head 10 times in a row would not be described by the 50/50 chance but by the binomial distribution function. This function relates the probability of each singular event (50/50) to the number of attempts that result in the probability of the whole experiment.

P(outcome)=f(P(individual attempt), #attempts)

With drops it's exactly the same way.
Regarding chance you could get the desired drop in the 1st attempt or never get it. If i'm not mistaken only when the attempts tend to infinity the probability of outcome tend to 100%.

(Any correction to my math are welcome, i don't think i did any major mistake but then again i don't work much on this kinds of problems anymore)

But we are not talking about individual attempts. We are talking about opening something 2+ times and if the overall chance is better with multiple attempt as opposed to just once.

Even with a coin... Side A: Panda Lic. Side B: Ice Tea.

1 roll is 50/50. 10 rolls is 50/50 overall, but what are the chances that you will roll Side A or Side B 10 times in a row. You said it's pretty improbable.

This would be more like a 100 sided dice (100%) with many numbers assigned consumables, some assigned to greens, and less assigned to panda lic and minis. Your over all chance of getting one of the rare items is affected by how many attempts you make. Otherwise people would only try these things one time. You don't know if you will get it on 1st or 3rd or the 148th time or never/whenever you give up or don't attempt it.

To simplify it. You have one box. I have 1,000,000 boxes. We both want a panda license. Who is more likely to get it? The % stays the same. The results change the more times you attempt it.

[Swingline]

Opened 10 Imp Strong Boxes and I got 5 Ganshu's Record, 3 Phoenix's Retribution and 2 Ice Teas... WTF!!!

[San Arios]

more fowruns than i can count.... 2 q9 vs, but no fckin edge for me -.-

[Flameseeker]

Originally Posted by Showtime

So you are telling us that opening something 100 times nets you the same exact same chance as opening it one time?

Yup, if you throw a coin you always have 50/50 chance of heads or tails. Even if by any freak of nature you get heads 10 times straight the probability of each individual attempt was 50/50 and the 11th will still be 50/50.
Now the probability of having head 10 times in a row would not be described by the 50/50 chance but by the binomial distribution function. This function relates the probability of each singular event (50/50) to the number of attempts that result in the probability of the whole experiment.

P(outcome)=f(P(individual attempt), #attempts)

With drops it's exactly the same way.
Regarding chance you could get the desired drop in the 1st attempt or never get it. If i'm not mistaken only when the attempts tend to infinity the probability of outcome tend to 100%.

(Any correction to my math are welcome, i don't think i did any major mistake but then again i don't work much on this kinds of problems anymore)

Back to topic
from 22 imperial guard lockboxes
40 lockpicks
weird green weapons
some sugar/party items

Where's my minis and panda

[Kada]

I got a q8 Echovald Shield drop...but wiped before I could pick it up because I thought I'd used a candycane to get myself off -60 but it hadn't actually been used. It was also the last 3 enemies to kill before Morostav was completely vanquished so I not only lost my shield I lost 15k bonus Kurzick points.

I ****ing hate Wardens of Earth

[Kiki Go Boom]

Was that a gold Echovald Shield?